Pumpkin Spice & Holiday Forecast

by Will Becker, AWMA/AIF

The days are getting shorter, the holidays are creeping up on us, and before I know it I’ll be wondering why I’m so stuffed after Christmas dinner yet again. In just three weeks, the Halloween costumes will be back in the garage, we will know who our next president will be, and up next will be Thanksgiving. Yegads.

The other day I was driving past a Pumpkin patch, wishing I was drinking a Pumpkin Spice Latte, and got to wondering about the plethora of pumpkin spiced things these days. It seems like Pumpkin-themed products are in an awful lot of the isles in the grocery store this month. Just to illustrate, here are a few Pumpkin Spiced Foods that surprised me: Pumpkin Pie Pop Tarts, Pumpkin Spice Caribbean style Salsa, Pumpkin Spice Fig Bars, Pumpkin Pie Spice Peanut Butter Whipped Spread, and Pumpkin Spice Frosted Mini-Wheats. I’m going to go out on a limb and say that there are some inventions that make me feel like our civilization has reached a new apex… but pumpkin pie spiced peanut butter happens to not be one of them. Having just said that, I’m probably about to find out how many clients like these particular products. In fact, please write back to let me know your favorite Pumpkin-themed food!

With this glut of Pumpkin products… where does all the pumpkin spice comes from? Is there going to be a Great Pumpkin Spice shortage, leading to price spikes and an epic Great Pumpkin Spice Bubble that pops? Because that would be both economically and personally entertaining to see unfold! To find out more, I looked at the one-and-only Pumpkin Spice Latte from Starbucks. More than 200 million of these iconic seasonal drinks have sold in the past 13 years. Guess what, according to the Wall Street Journal, there’s NO PUMPKIN in them!

Now on to a quick note about the Holiday Forecast. While my holiday shopping is still but a dream, the retailers are getting ready for us. According to the National Retail Federation, Holiday Sales are projected to increase +3.6% this year. In preparation for the onslaught of shopping, October Imports Spike as Retailers Stock Up for the Holidays. Matthew Shay from the National Retail Federation says "All of the fundamentals are in a good place, giving strength to consumers and leading us to believe that this will be a very positive holiday season.”

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